Perfection is attained by slow degrees; it requires the hand of time - VoltaireBoth Leinster and Munster come into this fixture on the back of pretty harrowing defeats last week. Whilst an away trip to Connacht never proves easy for Leinster nobody quite anticipated the 34-6 hammering that was handed to them. Meanwhile Munster were beaten up by their old nemesis the Ospreys 30-15.
There is no need for panic stations on either side just yet. Indeed Leinster's start is unerringly akin to Joe Schmidt's first season in charge. That year Leinster struggled for the early part of the season. Then came a hard fought victory over Munster in the Aviva thanks to a Brian O'Driscoll try. It almost seemed to kick-start their run to Heineken Cup success that year.
However matters are somewhat different this team around. That was the Kiwi's first season in charge. Leinster are now in their third season with Schmidt. It is hard not to be a bit worried about the amount of tries they have already conceded. 18 tries have been leaked in five matches thus far in the league. Last season they only conceded 28 for the whole League campaign.
What is going wrong? Well mainly it is the crippling injury list they have. The players now out of action include Sean O'Brien, Rob Kearney, Luke Fitzgerald, Eoin Reddan, Isaac Boss, Eoin O'Malley, Dave Kearney, Rhys Ruddock and Dominic Ryan. That is two Lions players and a former European player of the Year. In addition to this all of those players barring O'Malley, Ryan and Dave Kearney have played for Ireland. It is quite difficult to replace players of that quality and quantity.
Munster are in a somewhat different boat. A new man is in charge. For it is Rob Penney who has been given the keys to the Munster house now and by all accounts he has come across very positively. From the Munster matches I have seen this year there is clearly more direction and bite to their attack than there was last season. I am afraid to ever watch the Ospreys semi final last year where they were pummelled 45-10. Never had I seen Munster so toothless in such an important match irrespective of who was on the field.
On paper the back line looks like it will be pretty healthy this season. There is a strong possibility that one of Casey Laulala or last years try scoring machine Simon Zebo will have to be content with a bench spot, certainly for the big matches in the winter anyway. They also still have Felix Jones to come back into the side too and whilst there are still doubts hanging around him, Ian Keatley has had a promising start to his season.
Munster's problem, ironically considering their reputation, comes in the pack. Over the past two seasons they have lost some really classy operators. Included in this list are Alan Quinlan, David Wallace, Denis Leamy, Jerry Flannery and John Hayes. The latter duo always provided a stern if not spectacular scrum whilst Flannery's lineouts were always on the money.
In addition to this Leamy, Quinlan and Wallace formed one of the best back rows in European club rugby. In their prime of 2008 they were hugely formidable and were probably the key to Munster winning the trophy that season. At the moment none of their back row is quite at that level, whilst only BJ Botha would make it into the 2008 outfit in the front row. Furthermore the leadership of Mick O'Driscoll is also a loss and he often performed well in the absence of Paul O'Connell.
So what can we expect on Saturday? Both sides will be desperate for a win. In the last few seasons these matches have often been decided by a single try. However the nature of both teams at the moment suggests that there will be a few more tries on Saturday. It will be particularly interesting to see what the Leinster backline will be. Isa Nacewa will almost certainly be full back and with Gordon D'Arcy doubtful for the clash where does Joe Schmidt play Fergus McFadden?
Especially considering the injuries that face them, I would love to see Leinster try Ian Madigan at 12 and position McFadden on the wing. Sure, Madigan has not played much in that position but he has an excellent passing game and he provides another kicking option outside of Johnny Sexton who is the best out half in Europe at the moment. In addition to this he is a decent tackler and Sexton is a very strong defender. The 10-12 channel would not be that weak defensively. Added to this, Brian O'Driscoll would be the ideal man to guide and help Madigan mature at 12.
As for Munster, providing their pack, minus the services of Paul O'Connell, can stay with Leinster's for the eighty minutes they have every chance of pulling off a result. However I think Leinster need a win just a little a bit more here and with home advantage and a slightly better all round set of forwards they should get it....but only just.
Prediction: Leinster by 6
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